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It's high time for a poll, ladies. BE honest! Into which G&T program do you honestly think (not hope --- but your best guess) your dc will get placed?
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I'm thinking that NEST is going to be completely full of 99s, and that some 99s aren't even going to get in there.
[ Reply | Options ]Nah. Think - 250 (max) 99s. 50 don't return apps for various reasons. That's 200. A will accept 55-60, NEST will accept 130ish, and of the 99s, about 40 have a district preference.
[ Reply | Options ]The pessimist in me disagrees with your 250 starting point. I think it could be as high as 400 . . .
[ Reply | Options ]I agree with you, I think the number of 99s is much higher than 1/3 of the total. In D3, 192 kids were above the 95% and 157 were above the 97%. That means there were only 35 kids in the 95th and 96th percentiles so I'm not sure why we can assume the distribution is any higher for the 97% and 98%.
[ Reply | Options ]Everyone keeps forgetting that most of the highest scoring kids are likely going to TT or Hunter. Even if you are correct and nearly half of the 97+ are 99s, I would suspect that at least a third of them (but probably more like a half) are not applying to G&T--thus all the phone calls the DOE is making!
[ Reply | Options ]np: I think that's really overstating it. Of course some will go private & Hunter, but I wouldn't say "most."
[ Reply | Options ]I never said 'most'--I said 1/3 to 1/2. Given that top scorers are the same ones that the TT and Hunter took I don't think that is unrealistic at all. Please remember that UB distorts everything--back during Hunter testing we were "convinced" that everyone was a 99, and then the testers confirmed there were about 65 99s--just like there usually are
[ Reply | Options ]Actually, I think that many of the kids heading to top privates didn't even bother with the OLSAT. I think that the number of 99s going to private/Hunter is probably around 30
[ Reply | Options ]~~okay I did say "most" in the first part of my post--but I qualified it as 1/3 to 1/2
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Are you high? Hunter had 48 spots. so most of the top scorers are not going there. Most people I know with dcs going to tt privates never had their dcs take the Olsat.
[ Reply | Options ]I think there are probably a lot of 99s who will just put A and then maybe one top district program and otherwise go private. So it might not help those set on A, but will lower the numbers for other districts programs.
[ Reply | Options ]Hunter accepted 48. They also went to at least 10 on their wait list for boys and a few names in for girls. That is about 60 spots. In addition, in response to the poster above you in all of the polls on this site (and there have been many) there were never more than 25 99s and only a small handful (probably fewer than 5) willing to ditch private for Anderson. Finally, while we have a very Manhattan or perhaps Brooklyn centric look at the world there are in fact over 550 people outside of Manhattan who scored 97+ and I doubt that the bulk of them (Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, Riverdale, and a few pockets in Queens excepted) that will schlep to Manhattan for the citywides.
[ Reply | Options ]I'm in D6 and know 2 99s, both of which ranked Anderson. If you look on the Yahoo! G&T group, you'll see several 99s in Riverdale who ranked Anderson first. You would be surprised how many far away 99s ranked A first.
[ Reply | Options ]Yes, and I included Riverdale and all of Manhattan in my estimate. But I still think there are about 300+ people outside Manhattan not considering citywide. And while everyone here is convinced that people are geniuses in this city only 6% of the kids who took the test for entry grade got over 97%, 8% (2% more) got over 95% and 14% (6% more) got over 90. That means roughly 1% each for 90- 96, and around 2% each for 97, 98, 99. Why would the distribution be 4% 99 and 1% everything else?
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With a 98, the best we can hope for is NEST. But I'm very undecided about it. Is it better than a decent private?
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